Its all connected

The ongoing war in crimea is being dubbed as the “New Cold War” by some, however I consider it to be a “Hot Peace”situation. The world now has moved far ahead of the conditions prevailing in 60s or 70s, we are a lot more interconnected than we previously were. The experts in the US who are criticizing Obama for his weak policies themselves know that they cannot afford a war at this moment. Afghanistan has become a new Vietnam for them. Moreover, Russia has used “Democracy” and “will of the people” as tool in this crisis. Until now this tool belonged to the west.
The Crimean crisis has changed the stature of Russia in the international arena, it has already shown its assertiveness in Syrian crisis. This increasing weight of Russia is not the only thing that can affect India in the near future. Just like India Ukraine is also an exporter of rice. In case it misses the sowing season due to a civil war, India can profit from rice exports decreasing its current account deficit. This won’t be a very huge business but it will create an impact, provided there is a good monsoon in India this year. And there will be a good monsoon only if there is a weak El-Nino.
It is certain that 2014 is an El-Nino year,although the expected degree of impact varies according to different agencies. Out of the previous 13 El-Ninos, we had a drought in 10 of them. This simplistic data may misguide us into believing that we won’t be able to extract anything out of the Ukraine crisis, this is far from true. The impact of El-Nino will be more on the western side of the India, Rajasthan, Haryana, the Punjab, Madhya Pradesh,some parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra will be affected. Apart from MP,these region are more famous for wheat and millets cultivation.
So, the rice cultivating areas which lay in the eastern parts of India will remain more or less unaffected.
The western part of India is contiguous with Pakistan,to whom our new PM has extended hands of friendship last week. If there’s a drought like situation in western India, there will be a similar situation in eastern Pakistan. Depending upon our own food reserves we can do a bit of business as well as some diplomacy this year.


One thought on “Its all connected

  1. Some term the proceedings in Ukraine as the beginning of a a new cold war while for some it’s just the revival of the old, as they believe that cold war might have weakened after the disintegration of USSR, but it never ended. India must not be unhappy with what happened as we have always been a proponent of bipolarity. India understands that hegemony leads to exploitation and balance of power is necessary for the smooth functioning of international affairs.The strengthening ties between Russia and China are better reinforced with the recently signed oil agreement between the two. The agreement allows Russia to reduce its dependence on European countries as far as the export of oil is concerned as 75% of the total petroleum needs of Europe is satiated by Russia, though it might create problems for some of the European countries like Germany who heavily import oil from Russia. This, along with other recent incidents like veto on Syrian issue by China and Russia, are unequivocal messages to the USA that there has to be an end to the unethical practices and double standards employed by it to extend its surface of influence for economic and strategic gains.. As pointed above, other ramification for India could be in the form of increased rice exports as Ukraine, one of the leading rice producers of the world, is facing political instability. This is subject to the condition that the El-Nino behaves in an expected fashion and doesn’t effect the rice producing eastern states of India.

    Though I want to add more on El-Nino, a power cut coupled with my drained out laptop battery doesn’t allow me the same. I wish AK had stayed for a bit long.

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